Results of a Nationwide Public Opinion Poll on Iraq’s Upcoming Parliamentary Election

Executive Summary

1001 Iraqi Thoughts commissioned a public opinion survey in Iraq to gauge the popularity of competing parties ahead of parliamentary elections scheduled for 12^th May. The nationwide poll was conducted between 22-28 April featuring 3,032 randomly selected telephone interviews across all 18 provinces. Sampling was weighted against population size and gender on the provincial level to ensure fair representation.

The results show a number of key findings:

Some 60% of people overall support a second term for Prime Minister Haider Al-Abadi. His popularity is highest in the three liberated provinces of Ninewa, Salahadin and Anbar. Even in the Kurdistan Region, Al-Abadi enjoys support from over 50% of those interviewed.
Voter turnout is expected to be high despite some calls by activists to boycott the elections. The poll’s findings show that participation from voters belonging to the liberated provinces, especially Mosul, will likely be among the highest in the country.
The popularity of Haider Al-Abadi’s Victory coalition consistently ranks highest among the competing lists with 24% of the vote share, while there is a close race for second place among Moqtada Al-Sadr’s Sa’iroon coalition and Hadi Al-Ameri’s Conquest alliance. Meanwhile, Nouri Al-Maliki’s State of Law appears to be far less popular in Baghdad than it was in the 2014 elections, and will likely pick up most of its seats from the southern provinces including Karbala and Basra, where Maliki still retains a strong support base.

The findings are consistent with an earlier poll commissioned by 1001 Iraqi Thoughts in March, which also found strong popularity for Victory nationwide. After two weeks of campaigning, the proportion of undecided voters has fallen significantly, from 63% in the March poll to 26% in April.