Iraq’s Ordeal in the Face of the Iran – Saudi Conflict

The confrontation between Iran and Saudi Arabia has peaked in recent days. The unprecedented attack on the Aramco oil facility by Yemen’s Ansar Allah (Houthi) forces has heightened tensions on both sides of the war.

Iran supports the Houthis in Yemen and over the course of the conflict has provided them with different forms of assistance. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia leads an Arab coalition which has been waging a war for almost four years; a war which has devastated and severely damaged most aspects of life in Yemen, and caused serious and far-ranging social and economic damage.

It can be said that the recent Houthi attack on the Aramco oil facility in the heart of Saudi Arabia has tipped the balance in favour of Houthi military power.

As we have witnessed over the past few years, after every attack by the Houthis, Saudi Arabia has blamed Iran for these operations, and for supplying the Houthis with the weapons used against Saudi targets. This time, however, Saudi Arabia was quick to point the finger directly at Iran over what happened at Aramco. The recent indirect confrontations between Iran and Saudi Arabia may be regarded as a serious escalation, indeed, one approaching boiling point. Regardless of who manufactured or fired the weapons used against the Aramco oil facility, the recent attacks have altered the balance of power and could lead to an all-out war in the region.

At the beginning of the war, Saudi Arabia who had counted on support from the United States and its entry in the war against Iran – especially after the downing of a US reconnaissance plane – now believes that the United States has no desire to engage in any form of war in the region. While the United States has repeatedly called for the Yemen hostilities to end for the benefit of Riyadh, yet at the same time President Donald Trump has consistently vetoed the US Congress’s ban on arms exports to Saudi Arabia for use in the Yemen war.

So, what is the solution?

Saudi Arabia finally understands that the United States, which has steadfastly refused to become embroiled in the Yemeni war, is definitely not willing to become engaged directly in a war with Iran to defend Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia, which has already incurred high costs on this war, can seize the opportunity and demonstrate its determination to end the war. The war in Yemen has gravely impacted the Yemeni people, who have had to live through the most difficult conditions for the past four years, surrounded by the Saudis and their allies.

It goes without saying that if all parties to the current hostilities openly declare their willingness to negotiate an end to the Yemen war, tensions in the region will no doubt ease.

Iraq’s balancing act

Prime Minister Adil Abd Al-Mahdi’s visit to Saudi Arabia on April 17, 2019, represented a serious test for Iraq’s foreign policy towards the various crises and conflicts in the region. Abd Al-Mahdi finds himself in a difficult position as, on the one hand, he wants to consolidate his rapprochement towards the Gulf countries and demonstrate the moderate policies of his country; and yet on the other hand, he has to avoid unnecessary confrontations with Iran’s allies and Iran’s influence in the region.

Tehran sees Iraq’s marketplace as the provider of an economic lifeline as it helps with easing the pressure of US sanctions on it, with Iraq being a customer of both gas and electricity, and as a conduit for securing the flow of foreign currencies, and for the marketing of its other domestic products.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is trying to exploit its economic weight, as well as its religious and political credentials in the region, to provide viable alternatives for the Iraqis that may potentially prevent them from relying entirely on their eastern neighbour, or even possibly encourage them to set boundaries on their relations such that they do not adversely affect the interests of their Arab neighbours. This may help explain the thirteen agreements and memoranda of understanding that Riyadh recently signed with Baghdad whereby four major Saudi companies – Aramco, SABIC, Maaden and ACWA Power, plan to invest in the Iraqi market.

These investments could also offer a more suitable and cheaper alternative to the more costly gas and electricity imported from Iran. Saudi Arabia has already offered a joint electricity grid project with Iraq. Over the past few years, the lack of both these resources has been one of the main catalysts for the popular anger of the Iraqi street.

The potential scenarios that can be played out by some regional countries on the international stage to resolve the ongoing Iranian-Saudi crisis:

1- Open channels through the reformist movement represented by Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani and Foreign Minister Mohammed Zarif, and see if an attempt to reach consensus on specific issues, such as Yemen, Lebanon and Syria, bear fruit.

2 – Galvanising the Iranian and Saudi sides towards finding a diplomatic solution to the crisis, and to reach a deal of “no winners or losers.” However, the obstacles are great, and the two sides do not seem ready for dialogue that can achieve a convincing outcome for both, especially in light of the US escalation against Iran, and the ban on the export of Iranian oil.

3 – Prevent the two sides from engaging in a direct confrontation, whether partial or total; seeing that there are certain major powers who have a vested interest in exhausting the two sides, and seeing them engage in economic and military wars of attrition, as happened in the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988). This scenario cannot be ruled out if the confrontation continues between the two sides and escalates into an energy conflict, especially with Tehran’s accusations against Riyadh for being largely responsible for the decline in oil prices. The price of oil is expected to continue to fall below $40 during 2019, and possibly go below $30 by 2020, which means that Iran’s economy could suffer a catastrophic setback and thus push its leadership into an overseas military gamble.