Update on Iraq’s Government Formation

On Saturday, August 19 Iraqis were eagerly waiting for the largest parliamentary bloc to be announced, after news leaked that a meeting between five major political groups was going to be held at Babylon Hotel in Baghdad later in the evening. This came after Iraq’s Federal Supreme Court announced the same day that it had ratified the election results upon the conclusion of the manual vote recount and sorting process. The formation of the largest parliamentary bloc is only the first phase of negotiations after the election results have been ratified, with other subsequent phases that comprise transitioning power to the next government.

The primary goal of the meeting at Babylon Hotel was to officially announce the largest parliamentary bloc, which would be tasked by the next president to nominate the next prime minister. It was expected that Muqtada Al-Sadr’s Sairoon, Haider Al-Abadi’s Nasr, Ammar Al-Hakim’s Hikma, Ayad Allawi’s Wataniya list, and Coalition of Iraqi Forces that is representative of major Sunni factions would announce the largest bloc. Upon arrival of prominent politicians at Babylon Hotel, the meeting started in order to finalize the agreement of the largest bloc, with the formal announcement supposedly to take place in the press conference afterwards.

However, those convening failed to announce the largest bloc and the press conference never materialized. According to Hikma’s spokesman Baligh Abu Galal, the reason the meeting failed was that some Sunni leaders refused to attend the conference because Khamis Al-Khanjar, a controversial figure notorious for his close ties to Baathists and his famous statement in which he described ISIS as ‘tribal revolutionaries,’ was not invited. In reality, a delegation of Sunni leaders was meeting in Erbil with Kurdish officials.

Upon the failure of the ‘Coalition Forces’ leaders to show up, the parties that were present issued a statement announcing the formation of the ‘core’ of the largest bloc, that should continue to strive towards forming the largest bloc, and that it was open to other political groups in its negotiations, per “citizen’s demands” and “in-line of the national interest.” The events of Sunday are clear indicators that the negotiations are going to be very tough and lengthy. Nevertheless, there is a silver lining in all of this.

For starters, the venue of the meeting, Babylon Hotel, was slightly surprising to observers given that most of the crucial meetings happen usually in the Al-Rashid Hotel. Apparently, Babylon Hotel was chosen to signal more closeness to the demands of the people, unlike the Al-Rashid Hotel, which lies inside the Green Zone.

It is also important to point out that those gathered in Babylon Hotel emphasized their aims to break the quota system and strive to build a coalition that transcends sect and ethnicity. While everyone has claimed this in the past, those participating in the meeting have made more credible attempts to do so. The best example is Abadi’s Nasr coalition, which ran in all provinces, and although headed by the incumbent prime minister who is Shi’i, it got the highest seats in Nineveh, a predominantly Sunni province. If this group follows through the announced goal, then this will be an essential step for Iraq to leave behind the widely loathed yet practiced quota system.

While many mocked the failed attempt to create the largest bloc in a rush, it comes in contrast of the conduct by other factions like Fateh who announced that they “won’t rush the formation of the largest bloc,” and that their largest bloc “will be more stable”. However, this is not in line with the popular demands of the people nor the Marje’ia’s repeated call to speed up the government formation process. Furthermore, all political factions had enough time to negotiate the coalition formation since May 12th, 2018 when the election took place. The reason why there are difficulties in forming the largest bloc is the lack of leaders with clear vision who instead base the formation process on cold-blooded political calculations. Hence, no bloc is guaranteed to be stable and withdrawals or disagreements can happen at the last second. Having said that, if this failed attempt puts more pressure on other factions to speed up the formation of the largest bloc, then it was a useful and necessary step.

Last but not least, there is a chance that this so-called ‘core’ of the largest bloc could become the core of the opposition, something that the political process in Iraq has been absent of and in desperate need. For the first time in Iraq’s nascent democracy, there seems to be two distinct axes competing with each other to form the next government, the first spearheaded by Abadi, Sadr and Hakim, and the other by Maliki and Ameri. There is a chance the rivalry between the two (Shia) sides is large enough and will eventually allow a large portion of the competing parties to remain in the opposition, rather than joining the other side like we have seen in the previous Iraqi governments.

The chaotic events on Sunday of attempting to form the largest bloc are the norm rather than the exception in Iraqi politics. The hope is that the government is formed as soon as possible, with an opposition in place in order to serve the Iraqi people as best as possible and transcending ethno-sectarianism. Which side will form the government and whether Iraq moves away from an all-encompassing coalition government remains to be seen.