The Political Implications of Electing Barham Salih as President

(MANILA BULLETIN/REUTERS)

As Iraq was facing a political deadlock after the election in which none of the contenders won a majority to dominate the political scene, the main political parties have managed to agree on new leadership to form the new government. On October 2, 2018, the newly elected Iraqi parliament chose in a rather dramatic session the new president of Iraq who then quickly appointed a prime minister-designate.

The fierce competition between the Kurdish parties led to the election of the charismatic Barham Salih, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) nominee over Fuad Hussein, the Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP) nominee as the new president. PUK winning the presidency again has significant implications on intra-party, Kurdish, federal, and regional politics.

In terms of intra-party politics, Barham Salih winning the presidency was a huge win for Bafel Talabani’s wing inside the PUK. This side of the PUK stumbled onto the political scene after the failed Kurdish independence referendum, for being accused of handing over the authority of Kirkuk to the federal government. Bafel alongside his cousin Lahor Talabani and other younger family members in the party have been held responsible for this ‘act of treason,’ as the KDP describe the events of last October. This happened as the party faced further division with the departure of Barham Salih, who left to establish his own party, the Coalition of Democracy and Justice. The other wing of the PUK, consisting more of the party’s old guard, headed by Hero Khan, Jalal Talabani’s widow/Bafel’s mother had welcomed the departure of Salih from the party in whom she sees a threat to her dominance.

After a failure to obtain a complete foothold over the party, Hero Khan was sidelined as the PUK’s new emerging leaders welcomed back Barham Salih and nominated him as their candidate for the presidency of Iraq. This move is seen as a win for Bafel’s wing, as the return of the politically savvy and diplomatic Salih will give both Bafel and Lahor more credibility as they are more military oriented and less seasoned politicians.

In terms of Kurdish politics, Salih’s return to the party and winning the Iraqi presidency should stop the PUK’s bleeding of political capital, which began ever since Jalal Talabani fell ill in 2012. Although the numbers not yet finalized, the initial results show that KDP is ahead of PUK in the parliamentary election of the Kurdistan Region, as the case with the federal election of Iraq in May. While the KDP remains dominant in Erbil and Dohuk, the PUK is losing its political dominance in Sulaimaniyah for years now, with strong opposition parties like the Change Movement (Gorran) and the New Generation Movement (NGM) being established in the last decade.

This development has allowed the KDP to challenge the PUK’s intra-regional and federal share of political positions. The KDP now wants the position of Iraq’s president, which has been held by the PUK since 2005 through old power-sharing agreements. Barzani’s party justifies its demand with the fact that it has now more seats in both the regional and federal parliaments. However, abolishing the regional presidency post last year after the failed independence referendum has given the post of the federal president an even bigger value for the Kurdish parties. Getting the post of the presidency in Baghdad is critical for the PUK’s political survival, as it will help Sulaimaniyah to remain relevant by recalibrating its influence over Erbil.

On a federal level, Salih’s presidency will return the Kurdish narrative to a reconciliatory tone that it has been missing since Jalal Talabani’s departure from the political scene. Salih, who considers himself a student of the late Talabani has vowed to follow a similar approach to his teacher in dealing with the complications of Iraqi politics. Although a rather ceremonial position, many hope that Salih, through his charismatic personality, will allow the presidency to play a bigger role in influencing Iraqi politics, unlike his predecessor Fuad Ma’soum. Barham’s reputation has made the majority of MPs in the Iraqi parliament chose him over Fuad Hussein, although the heads of the political blocs in the backdoor negotiations had agreed upon the latter. However, electing Barham Salih as president imposed a new equation for the Kurds on a federal level in which the KDP lost the upper hand.

The KDP’s rejection of Salih’s election as the new president does not have to do with the fact that it deviated from the closely followed ‘tradition’ of choosing the president amongst the Kurds. Rather, it is because it took that ability to choose the president out of Kurdish hands. This political indecisiveness of the Kurdish collective in Baghdad gives the rest of the Iraqi politicians more freedom to interact with an open mind and reasonable narrative. The PUK and Barham Salih, who initially rejected the referendum, yet participated later in it, still represent this narrative.

In contrast, the KDP’s Fuad Hussein is Barzani’s former chief of staff and member of the former Kurdish Independence Council, which was tasked with preparing the Kurdistan Region’s divide from Iraq. Iraqi MPs did not miss the irony of nominating an employee of Masoud Barzani for the post, and they had not forgotten the shock of the independence referendum, which was reflected in their choice for president. At any rate, Salih’s presidency represents a clear hit to the KDPs influence in Baghdad, while many anticipate less cooperative stances from the KDP in the future, despite the good personal relationship between Barham Salih and Masoud Barzani.

On a regional level, many anticipate that Salih’s presidency will play an important role in maintaining Baghdad’s balance between the U.S and Iran. Salih has a good working relationship with the Iranians and speaks Farsi while maintaining decade-long relationships with influential figures in Washington. The hope is that Salih will be striving to minimize the damage to Iraq from the rivalry between the two states. The new President’s invitation to the Saudi capital from King Salman indicates that Iraq can maintain and build on its more neutral stance adopted under Prime Minister Haider Al-Abadi.

The election of Salih, in terms of person and approach, is a crucial step towards stability in the new government. The hope is that he plays a more positive and engaged role and fulfills the expectations the Iraqi people have of him.