Baghdad and Washington: Setting Priorities for the Next Phase

The upcoming U.S. presidential election on November 5th comes at a critical and sensitive time for Washington, both domestically and internationally. This election is significant not only because it will shape the next four years of U.S. policy, but also due to the ongoing political and armed conflicts, particularly in the Middle East. It is therefore important to develop a framework and prioritize approaches to address the outcomes of this election, particularly in countries like Iraq, which will be affected by the results.

Predicting how the winner of this election will engage with Iraq is difficult, as bilateral relations are complex and influenced by various political, economic, and security factors. These factors will help shape the overall framework of the relationship and define the shared objectives between the two countries.

There is a unique aspect to the relationship between Iraq and the United States. The Iraqi government, under the leadership of Prime Minister Mohammed Al-Sudani, seeks to establish bilateral relations based on mutual interests while maintaining equilibrium between its relations with both Washington and Tehran to ensure regional stability. Iraq’s position focuses on promoting dialogue and avoiding conflicts that could undermine the country’s stability, and recognizing Iraq’s role as a stabilizing force in the region.

The prioritization of Iraq’s objectives is influenced by several political, economic, and security factors. The key priorities are:

• Security cooperation: Iraq has strategic security cooperation with the United States, particularly in the fight against terrorism, including confronting Da’ish/ISIS and enhancing the capabilities of the Iraqi military.
• Economic relations: The Iraqi government seeks to strengthen economic and trade relations with the United States, including investments in energy and infrastructure, alongside economic assistance and reconstruction efforts.
• Diplomatic balance: Iraq aims to maintain a balanced approach in its foreign relations, especially within the region, to support internal stability and further economic and political reforms.
• Reducing U.S. military presence: There is a growing trend among Iraqi politicians, both in parliament and the executive branch, to reduce the U.S. military presence, while preserving training and advisory partnerships. “The U.S. State Department has acknowledged this shift in its statements”.

Iraq’s efforts to prioritize these issues reflect its desire to strike a balance between safeguarding national interests and avoiding alignment with one side in the complex international landscape. As Prime Minister Al-Sudani has emphasized, “Iraq’s stabilization from 2014 to 2024 has reduced the justification for the international coalition’s presence after the defeat of ISIS”.

Several key perspectives could shape future cooperation between Iraq and the United States:

Political:

• Regional tensions: The rise in regional tensions and conflicts, such as the war in Gaza, the Iran-Israel conflict, the Russia-Ukraine war, tensions in southern Lebanon, and the Red Sea, may affect Iraq-U.S. relations. There is also a need to reframe perceptions of Iraq’s relationship with Iran to clarify the nature of its ties with the U.S.
• Kurdish disputes: U.S. encouragement for resolving internal disputes with Iraqi Kurdistan gives the Iraqi government space to seek political consensus.
• Equal partnerships: Iraq seeks to maintain an equal partnership with the U.S. through sustained dialogue.

Security:

• U.S. support: Recognizing the importance of U.S. support for Iraq’s military and security institutions is crucial, particularly as Iraq transitions to new military-security relations after the end of the international coalition’s mission. Iraq will need new security agreements as a key partner in counter-terrorism efforts, and it requires increased military training, equipment, and aircraft maintenance support.
• Combating drugs: In collaboration with the United States, Iraq aims to strengthen its capabilities in combating drug trafficking, which is the second biggest global threat after terrorism. Iraq has already made significant strides in this area.

Economics:

• Iraq is committed to achieving economic partnerships, particularly in the energy sector, including clean energy, and seeking solutions to water resource issues and climate change impacts. Iraq is also committed to combating corruption and enhancing financial security with U.S. support. This includes new understandings regarding U.S. sanctions on Iraqi banks and strategic reforms in Iraq’s banking and financial services.
• Climate solutions: Iraq intends to leverage modern technologies and U.S. assistance to address climate change, invest in associated gas, and reduce carbon emissions, along with developing clean energy solutions and combating desertification.
• Investment opportunities: Iraq presents a fertile ground for investment, offering promising opportunities for U.S. companies, supported by recent reforms in investment laws and banking procedures. There is also a need for technology transfer and agreements on constructing facilities for maintaining energy stations, which would create jobs and reduce financial burdens. To conclude, Iraq’s goal is to manage its priorities by balancing national interests and avoiding bias in an increasingly complex international scene.

The relationship between Baghdad and Washington needs to be flexible in facing the ever changing political and security dynamics in the region. The elements mentioned above should form the basis of the relationship between the two countries, regardless of who the next president is. This will ensure Iraq’s stability and strengthen its role in the Middle East. Washington always seeks regional balance, particularly in countering Iran’s role, how the U.S. handles the Iranian issue after the elections will impact its relations with Baghdad. While the relationship may shift based on the new administration’s approach to the region, the core elements that mutually benefit both Iraqis and Americans should drive bilateral relations.