The Battle for Jalal Talabani’s Successorship

(Photo: PUK Media)

The Kurdistan Region of Iraq’s second largest political party, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) faces an internal power struggle. Qubad Talabani and Bafel Talabani, the sons of the late former Iraqi President and leader of the PUK, Jalal Talabani are competing with their cousin, Lahur Talabani. In recent days the rift became public, a soft coup in the process.

In 2019, the PUK held its fourth congress, where Bafel and Lahur emerged as co-leaders of the PUK. This happened despite opposition from the Lahur wing, who opposed electing Bafel as co-leader because he received 791 votes to Lahur’s 902. The election highlighted the tense political atmosphere within the party amidst widespread allegations that the selection process was neither free nor fair.

Underlying this ongoing struggle for the consolidation of power lies the fight for the successorship of President Jalal Talabani. The official page of their mother, Hero Ibrahim Ahmed, posted a photo of her son with the caption “the only legitimate heir of Talabani’s inheritance is Bafel Talabani”.

The Plan: Regional Conspiracy or Foreign Meddling? 

The plan appears to have been concocted by the sitting Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) Deputy Prime Minister Qubad Talabani, and his brother, the self-proclaimed President of the PUK. The plan, which appear to have been in the works for months prior to its execution included removing key people affiliated to Lahur and the intelligence apparatus of the PUK. In addition to this, the companies owned by Lahur were seized and affiliated media outlets were closed. The message was clear: side with the brothers or you will be stripped of all titles and assets without a trial, vote or any legal mechanism.

Lahur appears isolated with little play at hand. As co-leader of the PUK, he pushed aside and angered the old guard of the party. Some interpreted Lahur’s actions as arrogance, others as reform, but what is clear is that the PUK can never claim democratic legitimacy.

The Kurdish media platforms have reported multiple versions of this story. Some referring to foreign entities conspiring against Lahur, others blaming regional parties, but the prospect of foreign meddling is highly unlikely. Some foreign countries might be pleased with the outcome of what is happening, but this is geopolitical coincidence, and not a plot to remove Lahur by force – this is the doing of Bafel and Qubad to retain control over the party their father co-founded.

The latest of Lahur Talabani’s statements directly accuse the KDP, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Turkey of the soft coup. However, the two brothers continue to frame it as protecting the PUK and the interests of the people of Kurdistan.

Why? 

Earlier today a media outlet affiliated with Bafel Talabani alleged a spy was arrested in the house of Jalal Talabani, associated with Lahur Talabani. It appears that within this context the Talabani family have made themselves both the judge and executioner. In addition to this, Bafel Talabani published a picture of himself by his late father’s grave, promising to protect the party.

Kurdish media platforms, filled with conspiracy theories and political party rhetoric have placed the past few days in different timelines. The message that Lahur Talabani shared on his social media platforms is one where he alleges the influence of the Ottomans, referring to Turkey, without mentioning Iran as having a hand in recent efforts to destroy the PUK.

What we are witnessing is an internal struggle for power and resources. The window of opportunity to minimise and control Lahur was coming to a close. Lahur has been controlling the media and social media recently, and his main big media corporation iPlus was in progress before being closed by the Talabani brothers. The stakes were too high, and the growing influence of Lahur could no longer be tolerated by internal political actors and the family.

In addition to the above, Bafel Talabani’s social media pages, and affiliated media platforms have started to refer to him as the PUK’s president, disregarding co-President Lahur Talabani. These amateur political ploys reflect the lack of experience both cousins have in government, as well as politics.

Lahur Talabani is the former director of the Counter Terrorism Group (CTG). Bafel Talabani’s only work experience is within the PUK’s intelligence unit. Both, as well as Qubad, would not have reached the leadership council of the PUK if they had not been the sons and nephew of former President Jalal Talabani. The sons and nephews of President Jalal Talabani have completely controlled the PUK, including the business in Sulaymaniyah, as well as oil and border crossing customs.

The Shia parties in Iraq want to understand this power struggle, particularly because historically the PUK party has been closer to the Shia ruling elites in Iraq. Earlier, former Iraqi Prime Ministers Haider Al-Abadi  and Nouri Al-Maliki  either met with or tried to mediate with both Lahur Talabani and Bafel Talabani separately. According to reports they discussed the security concerns, and “common views on how to deal with the current internal and external conspiracies facing Kurdistan Region of Iraq and the PUK”.

As the PUK’s leadership struggles, their rival, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) will benefit generally and in the next federal Iraqi election. The KDP’s leadership is under Masoud Barzani, and his authoritarianism means no one within the party will dare to collude outside of this framework. The KDP has not dealt with Lahur Talabani since he claimed the co-presidency post. Moreover, Lahur has been the loudest KDP opponent within the PUK. Both parties have years of bloodshed and civil war between them. The KDP has always preferred Qubad Talabani over Lahur Talabani for Qubad has been flexible in working as deputy prime minister of the KRG to both Masrour and Nechirvan Barzani.

The Future of the PUK 

What the PUK’s leadership seems to be unwilling to accept is that their problems are much bigger than the internal power struggles they have imposed on themselves. In the next federal Iraqi election they will be facing their biggest rival, the Turkish-backed KDP, which has tasked itself with consolidating power and silencing critics. As internal PUK rivalries escalate, the public grows more dissatisfied with the party’s lack of vision, ambition and ability to deliver on electoral promises.

The Kurdistan Region of Iraq is not a democracy. Those who perpetuate this view are either blind to the growing authoritarianism or are intentionally spreading propaganda. The PUK has always been considered as a softer party as compared to the KDP in terms of providing a space for the public to express themselves freely with democratic standards. However, the soft coup reveals that the PUK has planned to silence anyone who goes against the interests of the two sons of President Jalal Talabani. Lahur Talabani, despite his rhetoric of being different from the KDP and Masrour Barzani, showed no difference since he held the co-presidency post at the end of 2019 in terms of consolidating power, bringing more business under his control, funding and buying media and threatening dissenters. Iraqi Kurdistan’s relative stability has motivated the international community to turn a blind eye to the growing human rights violations, and this includes the hundreds of journalists, activists and dissidents that are imprisoned under the KRG premiership of Masrour Barzani.

The hegemonic interests of neighboring countries appear to have taken a hold within the political entities in the Kurdistan Region. More internal rifts and conflicts will enable regional countries to further interfere in the affairs of the Kurdistan Region and strengthen their clout.

This power struggle within the PUK is a new era in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. The Talabani brothers will not be able to fully consolidate power when internal dynamics of the party change. Although Lahur Talabani has been shocked by the soft coup, he may soon reject to step down. The uncompromising two sons of Jalal Talabani believe that the KDP, Turkey, US, and UK back them against their cousin because they have protected the interests of these powers better. This has left Lahur with no options; either fighting back or stepping down and leaving the Kurdistan Region. The days, weeks and months ahead are difficult to predict, however, uncompromising Talabanis will further take on each other, and if one side will not be able to completely silence the other through non-violent means, Sulaymaniyah may see bloody clashes among certain PUK militia wings loyal to the brothers and the cousin.