The Response of Iraq’s Political Elite to Early Elections

(Photo: Alaa al-Marjani/Reuters)

Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi announced a preliminary date for early federal elections, to fulfill his promise prior to taking office. The election date proposed is June 6, 2021. Early elections were a cornerstone of the demands made by protestors since protests began in October 2019. However, in the days following Kadhimi’s announcement, the political elite were divided into three camps regarding the decision: some came out in support, others opposed it, while the rest remained undecided. 

The decision to hold early elections was cautiously welcomed by some demonstrators, who saw it as a vindication of their core demands. Those in the political class who supported Kadhimi’s decision were Hadi al-Ameri of Fateh bloc and leader of Iraqiyoon bloc, Ammar al-Hakim.

Speaker Muhammad al-Halbousi was vocal in opposing Kadhimi’s decision. He called for an emergency session to be held jointly by the three presidencies and political leaders to remind everyone that the constitutional path for early elections is laid out in Article 64 of the Constitution. Halbousi’s opposition is undoubtedly meant to influence the actions of Shi’a and Kurdish factions and is nothing less than political gamesmanship.

The seemingly undecided amongst the political class are Nouri al-Maliki of the State of Law Coalition and leader of the Sairoon Alliance, Muqtada al-Sadr. Former Prime Minister Maliki is concerned that the dissolution of parliament is a two stage process: the first concerns the parties that have the right to request the dissolution; and the second is the party that has the mandate to dissolve it. Moreover, Parliament must vote on dissolving itself, and no single entity has the authority to do so. Kurdish parties have not yet declared an official position on the issue, preferring to wait until there is a more legal basis to the announcement. 

On Monday, August 3, Member of Parliament Riyad al-Masoudi, speaking on behalf of the Sairoon Alliance, stated that he supports whatever date is set for elections, as long as the political blocs collectively agree on it. What was of more concern to him was the agreement on the shape of the electoral districts and the amendments to the Federal Court law. At the same time, he also indicated that setting the date by the prime minister was unconstitutional and outside the executive branch’s authority. Therefore, Muqtada al-Sadr and his alliance do not seem to hold a specific or collective position on the issue, and that Sadr’s representatives in parliament are merely expressing their individual points of view.

The central question is within what context can early elections be held? And can they lead to radical changes in Iraq’s political landscape, when the very same political parties populate the political scene? One would expect existing parties to strive for the re-election of their representatives in order to play a role in forming the new government. Will this election be different from previous ones?  

On one hand, the forthcoming elections could bear witness to new initiatives by some of the existing parties. On the other hand, we may see the political demise of other parties. Perhaps the forthcoming elections may envision a new landscape for the future of Iraq, one that is beyond our perceptions and expectations.